Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  38.7  38.7  44.7  37.4  34.5  20.8  23.1  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  72.0  84.0  83.0  55.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  64.4  54.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -4.0  21.0  16.0  44.0  19.0  54.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0  -8.0 -16.0 -13.0  -1.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%        5.0%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       12.9%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%        6.4%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%        6.4%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%        6.2%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%        3.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        0.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP162025 250812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  38.7  38.7  44.7  37.4  34.5  20.8  23.1  F  F  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0  -8.0 -16.0 -13.0  -1.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%