Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  39.2  45.2  47.2  34.5  25.9  19.1  12.3 VU  U VU VU  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  84.0  80.0  64.0  23.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  82.9  68.5  49.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  21.0  21.0  54.0  26.0  31.0  45.0  34.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -8.0 -18.0 -16.0  -8.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.5%        5.7%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       12.9%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%        7.6%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%        7.6%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%        5.9%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        3.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP162025 250812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  39.2  45.2  47.2  34.5  25.9  19.1  12.3 VF  F VF VF  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -8.0 -18.0 -16.0  -8.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%