Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250812 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.70 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.2 45.2 46.8 40.7 33.9 16.4 15.7 23.1 U VU VU VU U F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 82.0 64.0 49.0 11.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 75.1 70.7 68.6 82.0 N N N N U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 21.0 54.0 16.0 14.0 50.0 28.0 23.0 U U N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 71.0 78.0 85.0 87.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -18.0 -18.0 -9.0 -7.0 -4.0 -8.0 F F VF VF F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.4% 6.5% 20.0% 25kt / 24h 15.1% 11.4% 13.3% 30kt / 24h 15.1% 6.1% 10.6% 35kt / 24h 15.0% 6.1% 10.5% 40kt / 24h 9.4% 5.9% 7.6% 45kt / 36h 6.0% 2.9% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 WP162025 250812 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.70 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.2 45.2 46.8 40.7 33.9 16.4 15.7 23.1 F VF VF VF F U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 71.0 78.0 85.0 87.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -18.0 -18.0 -9.0 -7.0 -4.0 -8.0 U U VU VU U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 2.1% 1.1%