Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  40.8  38.5  36.4  36.2  38.4  29.0  30.6 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  64.0  49.0  23.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  79.3  79.3  67.9  53.5  51.6  51.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  21.0  23.0  32.0  39.0  48.0  27.0   9.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -9.0  -6.0 -12.0  -1.0  -8.0  -6.0  -8.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.7%        9.2%       23.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.5%       17.0%       18.3%
 30kt / 24h       18.7%       11.3%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h       18.7%       11.3%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h       11.3%        9.7%       10.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%        4.0%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP162025 250812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  40.8  38.5  36.4  36.2  38.4  29.0  30.6 VF VF  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -9.0  -6.0 -12.0  -1.0  -8.0  -6.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%