Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  35.8  37.5  35.5  18.7  21.6  18.6  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  58.0  23.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  74.3  65.1  48.5  37.7  29.6  12.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  25.0  30.0   0.0  38.0  69.0  44.0   1.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -17.0 -18.0 -11.0 -12.0   1.0   2.0   3.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.0%        6.5%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       10.8%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%        7.0%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%        7.0%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%        5.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%        4.3%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 WP162025 250813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  35.8  37.5  35.5  18.7  21.6  18.6  19.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -17.0 -18.0 -11.0 -12.0   1.0   2.0   3.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%