Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  19.4  19.2  15.3  21.0  16.1  16.3  29.5  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 108.5 108.5  97.7  88.0  79.4  72.9  72.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  45.0  32.0  31.0  32.0  -6.0  -3.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 WP162025 250814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.