Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250814 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 111.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 174.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 24.7 17.4 15.9 24.0 15.9 31.0 25.7 N N F F N F U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 123.6 111.6 111.6 102.7 93.0 84.4 76.7 76.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 17.0 27.0 52.0 11.0 7.0 -16.0 25.0 N U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 79.0 75.0 73.0 73.0 63.0 64.0 61.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.0% 2.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 6.5% 3.4% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 2.1% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 22.1% 11.0% 16.5% 70kt / 48h 11.0% 1.9% 6.4% 65kt / 72h 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 WP162025 250814 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 111.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.