Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250815 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 142.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 27.1 30.6 25.9 21.8 29.5 28.0 34.4 N N U N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 133.6 121.6 121.6 111.0 101.5 94.4 86.7 79.8 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 23.0 45.0 33.0 19.0 -22.0 14.0 -23.0 U U N N U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 66.0 66.0 59.0 65.0 F F F F N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -1.0 4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 4.4% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 16.6% 7.2% 11.9% 70kt / 48h 7.2% 0.9% 4.0% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.22 WP162025 250815 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.