Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172025 250818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  31.9  31.0  30.1  39.0  36.9  36.9  36.9  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 104.8  96.0  96.0  96.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -18.0   9.0  20.0   7.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   8.0  16.0  19.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.9%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       25.2%       16.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       12.5%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       12.5%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        9.3%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       20.9%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        8.6%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.88

 WP172025 250818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  31.9  31.0  30.1  39.0  36.9  36.9  36.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   8.0  16.0  19.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%