Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172025 250818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  27.6  26.5  32.2  37.8  44.1  44.7  43.1  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 139.3 121.5 121.5 101.0  91.5  76.7  76.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   9.0  20.0  14.0  36.0  70.0  83.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  82.0  78.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0  18.0  15.0  18.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  U VU  U VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP172025 250818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  27.6  26.5  32.2  37.8  44.1  44.7  43.1  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  82.0  78.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0  18.0  15.0  18.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  F VF  F VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%