Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172025 250819 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.00 106.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 157.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 35.7 36.1 37.3 41.6 28.9 36.6 21.0 N U U U VU N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 126.5 114.8 106.0 96.5 89.4 81.7 75.9 69.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 -17.0 1.0 21.0 7.0 25.0 19.0 46.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 69.0 71.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 73.0 N F N N F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 25.0 27.0 23.0 27.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 1.0 VU VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.6% 0.3% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 WP172025 250819 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.00 106.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.