Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172025 250819 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 106.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 31.9 33.7 34.4 33.3 31.9 26.0 29.9 U U U U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 114.8 104.3 96.5 96.5 89.4 81.7 75.9 69.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 4.0 33.0 24.0 33.0 43.0 50.0 54.0 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 71.0 71.0 76.0 73.0 79.0 73.0 78.0 F N N F N F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 21.0 26.0 20.0 3.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 VU VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 5.2% 1.7% 3.5% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 0.1% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 WP172025 250819 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 106.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.