Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  25.8  22.1  17.0  34.7  43.8  58.0  56.9  N  N  N  F  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  52.0  46.0  31.0  33.0  26.0  17.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 112.4 112.4 116.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -15.0  16.0  52.0  15.0 -30.0 -23.0  -3.0  U  U  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -6.0   2.0  10.0   0.0   8.0   1.0  12.0  N  F  N  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        5.9%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       36.8%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%       19.5%       13.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       19.4%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       18.5%        9.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       36.8%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       18.6%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        5.8%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 WP182025 250819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  25.8  22.1  17.0  34.7  43.8  58.0  56.9  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -6.0   2.0  10.0   0.0   8.0   1.0  12.0  N  U  N  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%