Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  22.8  14.7  23.8  38.4  47.6  60.3  49.5  N  N  F  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  47.0  37.0  36.0  32.0  26.0  17.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 112.4 112.4 116.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  17.0  38.0  14.0 -80.0 -39.0 -41.0 -48.0  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   2.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        3.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       25.8%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       12.3%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       11.6%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.6%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       20.0%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        7.7%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.9%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP182025 250819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  22.8  14.7  23.8  38.4  47.6  60.3  49.5  N  N  U  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   2.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%