Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  14.1  28.6  33.4  38.1  48.2  51.5  38.3  N  F  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  37.0  28.0  31.0  28.0  24.0   8.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 130.1 117.4 117.4 106.2 108.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  51.0 -12.0  -1.0  -2.0 -19.0  -3.0 -19.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  15.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.5%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 WP182025 250819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  14.1  28.6  33.4  38.1  48.2  51.5  38.3  N  U  N  F  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  15.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%