Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  28.5  33.8  37.7  47.0  61.0  45.2  41.3  F  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  32.0  33.0  31.0  26.0  16.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 112.4 112.4 101.2 104.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0 -12.0  -2.0 -10.0 -39.0 -37.0 -31.0  -6.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.2%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP182025 250820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  28.5  33.8  37.7  47.0  61.0  45.2  41.3  U  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%