Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  33.8  38.0  38.1  53.1  44.0  32.1  32.1  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  33.0  33.0  31.0  16.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 125.1 125.1 112.4 103.0  94.3  94.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   2.0 -28.0  -1.0 -16.0 -22.0 -17.0 -17.0  U  U VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   2.0   9.0   3.0  14.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP182025 250820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  33.8  38.0  38.1  53.1  44.0  32.1  32.1  N  F  F  F VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   2.0   9.0   3.0  14.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%