Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  37.8  38.0  44.2  60.7  52.0  49.8  37.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  33.0  34.0  30.0  22.0  12.0  12.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 116.5 116.5 120.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -29.0  -1.0 -20.0 -31.0 -13.0 -16.0  -5.0  U VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   8.0   0.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP182025 250820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  37.8  38.0  44.2  60.7  52.0  49.8  37.7  F  F  F VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   8.0   0.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%