Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  39.9  45.5  56.3  61.0  55.8  48.7  39.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  28.0  26.0  36.0  39.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 117.3 119.6 119.6 117.3 119.6 119.6 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0  -1.0 -20.0 -16.0 -22.0 -29.0  -9.0  -2.0 VU  U VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   9.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 WP182025 250820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  39.9  45.5  56.3  61.0  55.8  48.7  39.9  F  F VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   9.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%