Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  41.4  47.3  59.0  49.6  47.6  40.3  38.7  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  17.0  21.0  28.0  35.0  30.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 119.6 119.6 119.6 117.3 108.6 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -16.0  13.0 -53.0 -11.0 -12.0  -8.0   3.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  48.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 WP182025 250821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  41.4  47.3  59.0  49.6  47.6  40.3  38.7  F VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  48.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%