Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182025 250821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  47.4  56.0  54.1  50.4  45.6  40.7  35.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  35.0  30.0  36.0  39.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 114.6 112.3 114.6 114.6 107.9 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  13.0 -53.0  -8.0 -49.0  -4.0 -15.0   4.0  U  U VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   3.0   6.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP182025 250821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  47.4  56.0  54.1  50.4  45.6  40.7  35.9  F VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   3.0   6.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%