Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182025 250821 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 130.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.8 60.8 62.3 58.9 53.9 41.4 39.7 24.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 37.0 43.0 39.0 37.0 35.0 35.0 31.0 U U N U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 127.3 129.6 129.6 129.6 120.7 120.7 F F N F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -72.0 -25.0 -30.0 -15.0 -8.0 2.0 -13.0 U VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 48.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 U U U VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 11.0 4.0 2.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 WP182025 250821 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 130.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.8 60.8 62.3 58.9 53.9 41.4 39.7 24.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 48.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 F F F VF F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 11.0 4.0 2.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.7% 1.8% 5.2%