Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182025 250821 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 131.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.9 60.7 54.9 52.4 46.4 40.6 34.6 10.7 VU VU VU VU VU U U F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 36.0 39.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.6 127.3 127.3 129.6 120.7 129.6 120.7 112.4 F N N F N F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -73.0 -26.0 -30.0 -18.0 -4.0 -8.0 0.0 0.0 VU VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 47.0 44.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 11.0 3.0 -2.0 4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.22 WP182025 250821 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 131.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.9 60.7 54.9 52.4 46.4 40.6 34.6 10.7 VF VF VF VF VF F F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 47.0 44.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 11.0 3.0 -2.0 4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.8% 1.8% 4.8%