Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182025 250822 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.10 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.6 53.8 53.8 51.9 42.4 42.5 33.4 24.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 39.0 38.0 37.0 34.0 32.0 32.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.1 132.3 132.3 134.6 127.9 127.9 127.9 125.7 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -34.0 -15.0 -24.0 -2.0 -8.0 -26.0 15.0 VU VU U VU U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 49.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 WP182025 250822 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.10 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.6 53.8 53.8 51.9 42.4 42.5 33.4 24.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 49.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.3% 0.9% 4.1%