Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182025 250822 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.50 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.2 55.3 45.9 44.9 43.0 35.2 39.7 39.7 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 39.0 29.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 137.3 139.6 139.6 130.7 139.6 137.3 135.1 135.1 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -24.0 -19.0 -10.0 1.0 -21.0 28.0 28.0 VU VU U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 48.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 VU U U VU U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 WP182025 250822 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.50 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.2 55.3 45.9 44.9 43.0 35.2 39.7 39.7 VF VF VF VF VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 48.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 VF F F VF F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.1% 0.4% 1.7%