Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  23.8  23.5  24.0  19.7  11.3  14.8  14.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  50.0  45.0  35.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  89.0  94.0  96.0 100.0 126.0 116.0  82.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        3.3%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.5%       38.0%       26.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       19.8%       12.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       19.0%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       14.1%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       51.6%       31.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%       28.6%       17.1%
 55kt / 48h       38.4%       42.7%       40.5%
 70kt / 48h       20.5%       36.3%       28.4%
 65kt / 72h       47.5%       70.3%       58.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP192025 250822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  23.8  23.5  24.0  19.7  11.3  14.8  14.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%