Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192025 250822 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 160.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 26.7 21.8 23.0 21.8 23.8 19.2 24.1 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 67.0 60.0 53.0 35.0 30.0 30.0 10.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 74.0 51.0 57.0 113.0 91.0 103.0 59.0 N N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 71.0 73.0 71.0 76.0 77.0 79.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 -13.0 N N N F N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 10.5% 8.2% 25kt / 24h 32.9% 60.9% 46.9% 30kt / 24h 16.4% 45.5% 31.0% 35kt / 24h 16.4% 45.5% 31.0% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 37.5% 19.3% 45kt / 36h 22.7% 73.0% 47.9% 55kt / 36h 12.7% 56.7% 34.7% 55kt / 48h 28.8% 46.4% 37.6% 70kt / 48h 13.0% 45.3% 29.1% 65kt / 72h 18.6% 61.1% 39.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 WP192025 250822 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 160.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 26.7 21.8 23.0 21.8 23.8 19.2 24.1 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 71.0 73.0 71.0 76.0 77.0 79.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 -13.0 N N N U N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%