Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  26.0  21.9  19.4  16.0  12.1  17.0  30.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  63.0  52.0  50.0  35.0  31.0  29.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  63.0  88.0  90.0  97.0  72.0  80.0  60.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%       11.9%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       40.6%       59.3%       49.9%
 30kt / 24h       23.0%       44.4%       33.7%
 35kt / 24h       22.1%       44.4%       33.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       42.8%       23.7%
 45kt / 36h       34.3%       69.1%       51.7%
 55kt / 36h       21.4%       51.3%       36.4%
 55kt / 48h       39.9%       50.7%       45.3%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       45.6%       33.6%
 65kt / 72h       19.1%       53.6%       36.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP192025 250823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  26.0  21.9  19.4  16.0  12.1  17.0  30.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%