Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  21.9  19.1  14.9  15.4  11.4  26.4  29.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  32.0  29.0  10.0  20.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  88.0  90.0  94.0  69.0  79.0  40.0  41.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0   2.0  -5.0 -13.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       14.3%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h       47.6%       66.8%       57.2%
 30kt / 24h       27.3%       57.2%       42.2%
 35kt / 24h       24.6%       57.2%       40.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       54.4%       31.0%
 45kt / 36h       37.2%       70.6%       53.9%
 55kt / 36h       22.4%       53.6%       38.0%
 55kt / 48h       37.7%       57.0%       47.4%
 70kt / 48h       19.9%       46.4%       33.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%       45.6%       29.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP192025 250823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  21.9  19.1  14.9  15.4  11.4  26.4  29.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0   2.0  -5.0 -13.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%