Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  18.5  18.1  16.8  14.9  20.8  33.4  32.4  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  53.0  45.0  35.0  29.0  25.0  19.6  14.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  39.0  55.0  68.0  38.0  33.0  39.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0 -11.0 -17.0 -10.0  F  N  F  F  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.8%       18.0%       18.4%
 25kt / 24h       44.5%       62.3%       53.4%
 30kt / 24h       30.6%       56.3%       43.4%
 35kt / 24h       30.6%       56.3%       43.4%
 40kt / 24h       12.4%       55.3%       33.8%
 45kt / 36h       34.1%       55.8%       45.0%
 55kt / 36h       20.1%       36.9%       28.5%
 55kt / 48h       16.1%       37.8%       26.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%       21.3%       13.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%       17.4%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP192025 250823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  18.5  18.1  16.8  14.9  20.8  33.4  32.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0 -11.0 -17.0 -10.0  U  N  U  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%