Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192025 250823 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 93.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 16.4 16.6 15.4 17.5 27.8 37.3 34.5 F F F F F N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 46.0 37.0 33.0 20.0 18.8 14.5 10.2 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 55.0 68.0 48.0 40.0 22.0 43.0 59.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 81.0 79.0 82.0 81.0 85.0 86.0 90.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -6.0 -6.0 -4.0 -1.0 -11.0 -12.0 -3.0 N F F F N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.6% 32.5% 33.0% 25kt / 24h 58.6% 76.7% 67.7% 30kt / 24h 50.7% 76.7% 63.7% 35kt / 24h 50.7% 76.7% 63.7% 40kt / 24h 21.5% 75.4% 48.5% 45kt / 36h 41.0% 65.9% 53.5% 55kt / 36h 24.6% 49.8% 37.2% 55kt / 48h 7.8% 40.3% 24.1% 70kt / 48h 2.3% 21.0% 11.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 13.4% 6.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP192025 250823 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 16.4 16.6 15.4 17.5 27.8 37.3 34.5 N U N U N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 81.0 79.0 82.0 81.0 85.0 86.0 90.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -6.0 -6.0 -4.0 -1.0 -11.0 -12.0 -3.0 N U U U N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%