Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192025 250824 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 111.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 90.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 15.7 15.4 12.7 20.2 34.4 34.2 37.0 F F F F N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 37.0 35.0 31.0 30.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 51.0 31.0 31.0 36.0 53.0 25.0 29.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 82.0 86.0 85.0 89.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 -10.0 -7.0 -5.0 1.0 N N N F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 46.4% 40.9% 43.6% 25kt / 24h 65.7% 81.8% 73.8% 30kt / 24h 65.7% 81.8% 73.8% 35kt / 24h 65.7% 81.8% 73.8% 40kt / 24h 22.6% 81.4% 52.0% 45kt / 36h 43.0% 64.1% 53.6% 55kt / 36h 26.4% 48.3% 37.4% 55kt / 48h 4.5% 35.1% 19.8% 70kt / 48h 1.1% 15.3% 8.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 8.3% 4.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP192025 250824 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 111.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 15.7 15.4 12.7 20.2 34.4 34.2 37.0 U U U U N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 82.0 86.0 85.0 89.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 -10.0 -7.0 -5.0 1.0 N N N U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%