Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192025 250824 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 110.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 15.4 12.7 16.7 28.9 37.2 34.7 43.3 F F F F N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 34.0 31.0 26.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 31.0 31.0 56.0 43.0 59.0 19.0 35.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 83.0 83.0 79.0 N N F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -12.0 -5.0 -5.0 5.0 N N F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 72.4% 52.2% 62.3% 25kt / 24h 78.6% 79.4% 79.0% 30kt / 24h 78.6% 79.4% 79.0% 35kt / 24h 78.6% 79.4% 79.0% 40kt / 24h 42.2% 78.9% 60.5% 45kt / 36h 61.7% 53.3% 57.5% 55kt / 36h 26.0% 37.7% 31.8% 55kt / 48h 5.7% 12.5% 9.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP192025 250824 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 110.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 15.4 12.7 16.7 28.9 37.2 34.7 43.3 U U U N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 83.0 83.0 79.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -12.0 -5.0 -5.0 5.0 N N U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%