Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  17.5  16.8  23.5  35.7  37.7  42.8  48.9  N  F  F  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  25.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  79.0  51.0  43.0  26.0  16.0  10.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  79.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  76.0  79.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.8%       13.2%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h       24.5%       34.8%       29.6%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       33.5%       25.5%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       33.5%       25.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       29.4%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%        8.8%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        2.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP192025 250824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  17.5  16.8  23.5  35.7  37.7  42.8  48.9  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  79.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  76.0  79.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%