Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192025 250825 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 19.1 26.7 28.6 32.4 32.4 31.6 35.5 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 30.0 10.0 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 32.0 25.0 26.0 79.0 18.0 61.0 30.0 N N U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 84.0 86.0 89.0 90.0 89.0 89.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -7.0 -12.0 -9.0 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 2.0 F F F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.8% 4.9% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 6.1% 10.6% 8.4% 30kt / 24h 4.7% 7.4% 6.1% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 7.2% 5.7% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 6.7% 3.9% 45kt / 36h 8.4% 2.0% 5.2% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP192025 250825 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 19.1 26.7 28.6 32.4 32.4 31.6 35.5 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 84.0 86.0 89.0 90.0 89.0 89.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -7.0 -12.0 -9.0 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 2.0 U U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3%