Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  26.2  30.1  32.1  36.4  38.0  38.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  24.0  26.0  32.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  85.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -14.0 -12.0  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        5.7%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       10.7%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%        7.3%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%        7.3%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        6.8%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%        2.3%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP192025 250825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  26.2  30.1  32.1  36.4  38.0  38.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  85.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -14.0 -12.0  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%