Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.3  32.4  34.2  33.5  40.4  24.6  26.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  30.0  26.0  77.0  28.0  56.0  11.0  30.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  83.0  81.0  82.0  88.0  86.0  81.0  78.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.7%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        9.6%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        6.9%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        6.9%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        5.9%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP192025 250825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.3  32.4  34.2  33.5  40.4  24.6  26.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  83.0  81.0  82.0  88.0  86.0  81.0  78.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%