Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  33.8  27.4  32.4  41.2  40.8  28.5  40.7  N  U  N  U VU VU  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  25.0  67.0  43.0  56.0  46.0  14.0  45.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -9.0  -4.0   3.0   5.0  11.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP192025 250825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  33.8  27.4  32.4  41.2  40.8  28.5  40.7  N  F  N  N VF VF  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -9.0  -4.0   3.0   5.0  11.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%