Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.1  36.4  40.3  37.7  32.5  31.4  31.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  70.0  48.0   8.0  55.0   1.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  89.0  89.0  89.0  90.0  85.0  85.0  F  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP192025 250826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.1  36.4  40.3  37.7  32.5  31.4  31.4  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  89.0  89.0  89.0  90.0  85.0  85.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%