Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192025 250826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  40.4  41.0  39.5  39.9  44.0  39.0  34.3  U  U VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0   8.0  62.0  55.0  11.0  22.0  24.0  10.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  89.0  89.0  88.0  91.0  86.0  89.0  85.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP192025 250826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  40.4  41.0  39.5  39.9  44.0  39.0  34.3  F  F VF  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  89.0  89.0  88.0  91.0  86.0  89.0  85.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%