Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  22.4  24.2  22.3  21.3  27.4  27.5  30.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  62.0  54.0  50.0  47.0  32.0  27.0  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  66.0  65.0  85.0  85.0  77.0  73.0  63.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       20.1%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        6.6%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        6.5%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        6.5%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       30.8%       21.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%       11.4%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       19.7%       13.8%       16.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%       10.3%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%       23.3%       17.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP202025 250828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  22.4  24.2  22.3  21.3  27.4  27.5  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%