Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  22.6  22.4  19.1  24.6  20.9  27.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  58.0  48.0  49.0  41.0  32.0   9.0  12.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  37.0  38.0  41.0  35.0  36.0  12.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       11.0%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.5%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       12.3%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        3.3%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        6.8%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        3.2%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        9.6%        6.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP202025 250828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  22.6  22.4  19.1  24.6  20.9  27.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%