Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  24.3  21.8  22.9  24.4  27.0  24.4  29.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  51.0  47.0  35.0  30.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  20.0  21.0  23.0  19.0   4.0  17.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       14.3%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        5.6%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       15.7%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        7.1%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        9.5%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP202025 250829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  24.3  21.8  22.9  24.4  27.0  24.4  29.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%