Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  23.0  23.1  27.4  28.1  28.8  30.1  32.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  41.0  35.0  30.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  24.0  14.0  26.0  18.0  23.0  35.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   4.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       12.4%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.1%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       11.8%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        5.9%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP202025 250829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  23.0  23.1  27.4  28.1  28.8  30.1  32.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   4.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%