Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.9  26.4  27.6  36.1  33.1  32.7  34.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  37.0  32.0  21.0  13.0   5.0   8.0  62.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  16.0  25.0  25.0   9.0  19.0  37.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.1%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       18.5%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        8.5%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        8.0%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        7.6%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       13.4%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.6%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        4.7%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        5.1%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP202025 250829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.9  26.4  27.6  36.1  33.1  32.7  34.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%