Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.4  29.8  30.8  35.4  39.0  30.3  25.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  28.0   9.0   7.0   3.0   7.0  64.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   8.0  16.0  13.0  34.0  36.0  40.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       10.0%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.9%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        5.4%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP202025 250829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.4  29.8  30.8  35.4  39.0  30.3  25.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%