Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  29.7  31.9  33.2  33.2  33.2  33.2  33.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  14.0  16.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        4.7%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       21.5%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%       11.3%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       11.3%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        9.6%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       17.7%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        6.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        5.2%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP202025 250830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  29.7  31.9  33.2  33.2  33.2  33.2  33.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%