Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  28.0  25.6  26.2  26.9  27.4  25.0  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  24.0  46.0  44.0  31.0  35.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        5.2%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       28.8%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       17.1%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       17.1%       11.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       15.4%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       26.8%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%       12.1%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%       10.1%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        5.3%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        9.4%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP202025 250830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  28.0  25.6  26.2  26.9  27.4  25.0  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%