Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  34.2  30.8  31.6  30.2  28.3  20.9  16.1  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.8   8.6   8.4   8.2  52.0  63.0  58.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  37.0  47.0  31.0  24.0  25.0  22.0   9.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  78.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        5.8%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP202025 250830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  34.2  30.8  31.6  30.2  28.3  20.9  16.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  78.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%