Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    102.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  29.3  30.0  34.7  29.3  33.3  40.2  40.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  65.0  65.0  57.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  51.0  43.0  51.0  52.0  23.0  64.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -9.0  -4.0  -8.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP202025 250830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    102.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  29.3  30.0  34.7  29.3  33.3  40.2  40.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -9.0  -4.0  -8.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%